At the anniversary conference "TRANSRUSSIA," a strategic discussion took place focusing on the prospects of the Russian logistics and freight transportation market in 2026. As part of the event, Evgeny Shakalida, CEO of TRASKO, presented an analytical overview of the industry's key trends and challenges.
According to the expert, market participants did not pay sufficient attention to forecasting price fluctuations. Amid heightened demand for transportation services in 2023–2024, numerous organizations, including new entrants, began actively expanding their vehicle fleets in anticipation of super-profits. Leasing companies fueled this process by approving financing en masse without thorough risk assessment. The result was a sharp decline in freight rates in 2025, leading to the exit of many carriers unable to cope with their debt burdens.
The current year has introduced new regulatory complexities for the industry. Since early spring, a register of freight forwarding companies has been operational, yet practical aspects of its implementation remain unclear. Additionally, the launch of an electronic transport document system is planned for the autumn period, for which many enterprises are not yet prepared.
The speaker devoted special attention to criticizing the mandatory use of electronic seals, which he believes unnecessarily duplicate existing customs guarantee mechanisms. Of particular concern is the implementation of Federal Law No. 140, which requires verification of declared cargo contents. The expert emphasizes that logistics operators are physically incapable of inspecting every single item, especially in the small-parcel segment, which formally places them in violation of the law. Shakalida is convinced that responsibility for the accuracy of cargo information should rest with shippers, not with freight forwarders and carriers.
"I am undoubtedly in favor of order and reasonable control over everything happening in our industry. However, what we objectively cannot ensure should not be assigned as our responsibility. We count on the authorities' understanding and hope that the laws in question will be adjusted. Yet even with governmental support, in 2026 we will all witness the continuation of last year's trend and the closure of a significant portion of transportation and logistics companies that anticipated rapid growth while burdening themselves with unsustainable financial obligations," noted Evgeny Shakalida.
According to the expert, market participants did not pay sufficient attention to forecasting price fluctuations. Amid heightened demand for transportation services in 2023–2024, numerous organizations, including new entrants, began actively expanding their vehicle fleets in anticipation of super-profits. Leasing companies fueled this process by approving financing en masse without thorough risk assessment. The result was a sharp decline in freight rates in 2025, leading to the exit of many carriers unable to cope with their debt burdens.
The current year has introduced new regulatory complexities for the industry. Since early spring, a register of freight forwarding companies has been operational, yet practical aspects of its implementation remain unclear. Additionally, the launch of an electronic transport document system is planned for the autumn period, for which many enterprises are not yet prepared.
The speaker devoted special attention to criticizing the mandatory use of electronic seals, which he believes unnecessarily duplicate existing customs guarantee mechanisms. Of particular concern is the implementation of Federal Law No. 140, which requires verification of declared cargo contents. The expert emphasizes that logistics operators are physically incapable of inspecting every single item, especially in the small-parcel segment, which formally places them in violation of the law. Shakalida is convinced that responsibility for the accuracy of cargo information should rest with shippers, not with freight forwarders and carriers.
"I am undoubtedly in favor of order and reasonable control over everything happening in our industry. However, what we objectively cannot ensure should not be assigned as our responsibility. We count on the authorities' understanding and hope that the laws in question will be adjusted. Yet even with governmental support, in 2026 we will all witness the continuation of last year's trend and the closure of a significant portion of transportation and logistics companies that anticipated rapid growth while burdening themselves with unsustainable financial obligations," noted Evgeny Shakalida.
